Cashew Market Growth & Future Outlook India (2025-2030): Opportunities, Trends, and Projections

India has the world’s second-largest cashew producer and largest processing environment, and is strategically placed for dynamic growth through 2030. There is increased awareness of health benefits, increased demand for exports and changing domestic snacking trends, all of which are contributing to the bright future for cashews as they move from tropical plants into homes and lifestyles across the globe.

The coastal areas of Kerala, Maharashtra and Odisha have been the primary sources of the nuts, which are harvested by farmers who sell them to factories for shelling and grading, eventually resulting in kernels. India’s cashew crop has become a multi-billion-dollar industry, generating 2.28 billion USD in 2024 and projected to generate 3.31 billion USD by 2033 (growing at 4.25% CAGR).

With the health-conscious consumer seeking cashews for their protein content, heart-healthy fats and delicious

crunch, they can be found in many snack items, holiday/celebration sweets and spicy blends. In addition, exports to major markets, including the US, UAE and Japan, have spurred the growth of innovative flavours with high consumption among affluent urban Indian consumers. However, fluctuations in supply and fierce competition from Vietnam will pose challenges for the future as India tries to capture the full potential of the cashew market. Will government policy support and technological advancements allow India to optimise its position?

The Current Size and Potential Future Growth in the Market

India’s position as the world leader in cashew imports for processing (over 70%) by combining locally sourced cashew nuts with imported raw cashew from Africa is a key reason behind the projected growth rate of $2.35 Billion for India’s Cashew Industry by 2025; up from $2.2 billion in 2023, which indicates that the industry has a very good chance of sustaining its current strong growth trajectory. The domestic demand for cashews is expanding at approximately 7% annually, and younger generations today, particularly Gen Z consumers, are actively seeking products that contain high amounts of protein and are made with plant-based ingredients.

With Maharashtra being the primary producer, followed by Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, the Cashew Industry’s export volumes experienced unprecedented levels in 2024, with the U.S. consuming over 40% of all cashew exports from India. While most processors have been dealing with a 15% increase in raw nuts prices last season, many have taken steps to upgrade their cold storage facilities, which has helped stabilise the supply chain.

Regions Across India Offer Distinct Production Trends

South Indian regions, such as Kerala, are promoting the different strains of high-yield crops, while Eastern States (e.g., Odisha) are developing newer varieties in their Eastern orchards. Regions in Central and West India With Integrated Farms / Factories are producing 45% of domestic production due to access to the abundance of available labour in their areas. Regions in southern India have been producing 35% of their production through their established processing areas into export-ready products, creating a very fast and accurate supply chain for the highest grade kernel products to international buyers. In addition to this, the West and Central Indian regions have been increasing their domestic retail business via the higher levels of yield production and readily available labour. Due to urban demand, East India has just developed around 15% of their production business from the establishment of new plantations funded heavily by the Central and State Governments. The North Indian region has established a niche market product that appeals to the tastes of upscale consumers for around 5% of the total domestic production.

Farmers are grafting the new disease-resistant varieties of high-yield strains to increase production by an average of 20% on test plots. In addition to this, the complete mechanisation of agriculture in Vietnam has given India the incentive to reduce the demand for labour in agriculture by an average of 30%.

The export dynamics and demand for Vietnamese processed nuts are showing a rebound as Indian processors have regained market share in the US due to producing superior quality products. The U.A.E. and Japan continue to buy whole kernels, leading to some 6% yearly growth in exports. Premium white nuts, touted for their cardiovascular benefits, are furthering their growth by continuing to show a 4.7% compounding annual growth rate (CAGR).

The effects of tariffs and shipping costs, combined with the efforts to take advantage of the various FTA agreements with the U.A.E., will provide the necessary support for continued growth in the future. Consider that demand may double – processors may begin sourcing raw materials from Africa and save 10 to 15% on their import costs.

Dumping in U.S. Cases

The growing demand for easily consumed roasted and flavoured cashews has supported an average growth rate of 12% per annum in the retail segment of cashews in the past five years. Additionally, customers in search of better well-being have positively responded to organic products that are marketed by large online business firms such as Amazon. The sales of dried and roasted cashews show substantial jumps in sales (up to 25%) on different occasions, such as Diwali celebrations.

The rising demand for quick-service nut pouches among the Gen Z population has caused the loss of approximately 20% of the whole production of kernels due to exports. Additionally, it is forecasted by some analysts that the average individual will consume an average of 200 grams of cashew nuts in the year 2030.

The Challenges that Impact the Food Processing Industry

Low supply of Raw Nuts is causing problems for many manufacturers: India imports 60% of its nuts from the Ivory Coast and Nigeria, whose currencies are at risk of further fluctuations. A lack of available workforce due to higher job opportunities in urban locations has increased shelling costs of around 8-10% as shellers leave the industry. The crop yield impact of tea mosquitoes is about 15%, and farmers are eager to find a solution to avoid crop losses with the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs).

Many Vietnamese food processors have been able to effectively compete with the large number of food processors located in India; however, climate change has affected their weather patterns and has caused erratic rainfall conditions that adversely affect production levels. Therefore, to remain competitive, companies are diversifying their nut supply sources and automating their production processes through robotics.

Supporting Government Initiatives and Policies

The Cashew Board will be funding mechanisation using $50 million in funding. Vision 2030 is planning for 2 million tonnes of production through an increase in the density of cashew orchards. APEDA has reduced export requirements by 40%.

Odisha has issued loans for refrigerated transportation to help reduce price fluctuations. The wider government efforts to provide food will generate an estimated $547 billion of income by 2028, including support for cashew production. The replanting programme produces 10 million seedlings per year.

Greater efficiency is being realised due to technological improvements:

Steam cookers have replaced the large drum cookers to ensure accuracy both with respect to time as well as temperature.
Sorting robots do an efficient job of sorting, with fewer errors, thereby decreasing the amount of scrap generated.
Drones are used to monitor orchards to provide an early indicator to farmers on when their produce is ready for harvest.
Automatic shellers result in 50% less lost time because of labour shortages. – The technology can create complete traceability (farm to table), which attracts the consumer who cares about sustainability in the workplace.
The company’s information can be traced because it is embedded in blocks – Usage of organic labels jumped by 25%, leading to a premium of 20%.

Market Forecasts for the Years 2025 to 2030

The projections for 2025 indicate that the total market value will be between $2.35 and $2.56 billion, with an increase in revenue to $2.97 billion by 2030 (CAGR of 4.8%). The leading category of products sold is shelled nuts, which have an anticipated compound annual growth rate of 6.3%, increasing their revenue to $1.8 billion.

Market forecasts between 2025 and 2030 will continue to show steady growth, with an initial value of $2.35 billion on an export share of 65% and domestic sales making up 35% of the market. Projected sales are expected to grow to $2.65 billion in 2027, at which point the export share is expected to decline slightly to 62% and domestic sales will increase their market share to 38%, evidencing the rise of strong local snacking trends. The peak projection of $2.97 billion by 2030 will present an approximate export share of 60% and domestic sales comprising 40% of total market revenue, with growth driven by increased demand for healthy snack foods and increased penetration of e-commerce channels.

Growth Rate Breakdown

Export Recovery after Logistics

The period from 2025 to 2027 sees increased exports due to improvements in the Logistics Function (CAGR: 5.2%).
The period from 2028 to 2030 sees a peak in premium domestic product production as more products become available through Premiumisation (CAGR: 4.5%).

To calculate the amount of volumes now (1.2MM tons) and future (1.6MM tons), and further export and domestic numbers. Export volume was recorded as $1.50B (2025); $1.90B (2030); domestic volume, on average, was $0.85B and will be at a range of $1.07B. To determine the value of the future, FV = PV x (1+CAGR)^N, as an example: $2.35B x (1 +0.048)^5 = approximately $2.97B.

The major players within this competitive landscape are Olam, Jinwoong, and Bunge, accounting for 40% of the market share with enormous investments in seaside mega-factories. Smaller companies are closely competing with each other, mostly shipping organic boutique products. Consolidation amongst the top five producers in the industry is projected to reach 55% market share by 2030.

Growers are processing shell products into biofuel, ultimately reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 30%. Many growers are looking to capitalise on carbon credit funding with innovative products that focus on additional functionality (such as protein-enhanced bars). By 2030, India plans to become the world’s largest producer/exporter of cashew nuts through the combination of technology and a supportive policy environment. Health trends are creating opportunities for cashew nuts in the marketplace to be positioned as a premium super food, which should attract continued interest from innovators in this area.